A brief examination of the motivations and interests of the United States in the swiftly changing Trans-Caspian region, which links the Caucasus with Central Asia, and acts as a vital junction connecting Asia, Europe, and the Global South.
Freddie Ponton
21st Century Wire
The United States and Europe may have overlooked the complexities of the South Caucasus, and adopted policies filled with threats of sanctions against Azerbaijan while exhibiting scepticism regarding the Russian-led integration efforts in Eurasia. The EU has overlooked Washington’s incoherent approach to the Eurasian continent and the South Caucasus, resulting in a geopolitical imbroglio that requires people’s attention – as it could have dire consequences for the future of this region.
Thus, it is important to challenge the United States’ agenda in Azerbaijan and the regional implications of their increased engagement in the South Caucasus and Central Asia region. No one truly knows what the policy recommendations for the incoming US administration is going to look like, as Georgia and Azerbaijan are clearly strengthening their relationship around the Middle Corridor Project.
Under the Trump administration, US involvement is expected to focus on Azerbaijan’s strategic role in trans-Caspian trade and as an energy supplier for the EU, viewing Baku as a key ally. However, Azerbaijan will prioritize maintaining positive relations with Russia, leading the country to carefully navigate its foreign policy to balance US interests without jeopardizing these ties.
The United States has a long-standing interest in the South Caucasus, particularly in Georgia, with which it has maintained a strong diplomatic relationship since its independence in the early 1990s. Georgia’s NATO aspirations and national security have been influenced by its ties with Washington. However, with Georgia Dream (GD) set to extend its control of parliament, the wind is no longer blowing towards NATO and a potential EU membership. Since the Soviet Union’s collapse, US policy has focused on influencing Tbilisi’s political agenda in order to gain leverage over Georgia’s strategic role, not only in giving the US another foothold on Russia’s border, but also in the region’s energy and transportation corridors, especially the “Middle Corridor” – the land and sea freight transport route from China to Europe which the US and the EU sees as an opportunity to undermine Russia’s Northern Corridor.
In early 2024, the European Union and various international financial institutions committed approximately $10.8 billion to the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) in Central Asia. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and USAID have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance the Middle Corridor. On July 1, 2024, Azerbaijan Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov suspended cooperation with USAID.
By the end of November 2024, The United States had suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia following the cessation of discussions regarding the country’s potential membership in the European Union.
ANIMATED MAP: Middle Corridor Project – The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route starts from Southeast Asia and China, runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and further to European countries (Source: TITR)
The Biden administration has recently enacted sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and honorary chairman of Georgia Dream. Much to the discontent of both the United States and the European Union, this party shifted the previous government’s orientation from a pro-European Union position towards closer ties with Russia. This action represents the most recent installment in a series of sanctions imposed by the US on various Georgian politicians, lawmakers, and other individuals throughout 2024.
To understand the true motivation behind these sanctions, we must look beyond Georgia and its political choices, which ultimately takes us back to the South Caucasus region and the complexity of its geopolitics and economic realities. The United States’ strategy for the South Caucasus region is more confusing than ever, and its usual hegemonic approach to the problem is only unlikely to cut it. They did not only miscalculate Georgia’s resilience and ties with Russia by their plan for developing, controlling and benefiting from Eurasia’s crucial trade routes was simply inappropriate, lacking of a broader continental approach and blueprints for regional integration. The US Policy in Eurasia is alarmingly obsolete.
Although Turkey is still referred to as the bridge between Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are increasingly playing a major role in the trading and geopolitical corridors of the South Caucasus. The TITR (Middle Corridor), a rail freight corridor project linking China and the European Union has to this day, never stopped being a thorn for the United States, and its national interests in the region.
On January 17, 2025, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze visited Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, where he attended the 10th Meeting of the Azerbaijan-Georgia Intergovernmental Economic Cooperation Commission. The meetings offered a great opportunity to further strengthen both countries’ geopolitical ties and economic interests. Kobakhidze met with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, confirming the long friendship between these two countries and revealing their ongoing efforts towards regional stability and economic growth.
Over 80% of Georgia’s natural gas consumption is supplied by Azerbaijan which invested $3.6 billion in Georgia’s economy, a move that has undeniably sealed the intertwined future of these two nations.
There is ample evidence that suggests the US interference within Georgian politics but also in Azerbaijan affairs. On January 16, 2022, Jeyhun Bayramov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, declared in Baku, during a joint press conference with his Georgian counterpart, Maka Bochorishvili, that Azerbaijan would terminate all operations conducted by USAID (a known front for CIA activities) within its borders. He asserted that the initiatives undertaken by USAID were not aligned with Azerbaijan’s national interests and were primarily focused on promoting the United States’ agenda in the region. Perhaps one day we will find out what the Azerbaijan State Security Service (DXT) truly uncovered about USAID activities in their country.
Donald Trump’s inauguration is tainted with uncertainty regarding the return of peace to the World, and Trump’s unhealthy “obsession” with China remains a great concern. We must expect the South Caucasus region to become a major strategic geopolitical battleground where we can expect the US to do its utmost to create tension in the region whilst re-engaging with the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR).
In September 2024, As part of the working visit of the First Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Levan Davitashvili to China, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the promotion of transport corridors for China-Europe Railway Express, Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) was signed. The signing ceremony took place at the National Development and Reforms Commission of the People’s Republic of China and was signed by Levan Davitashvili and the Vice Chairman of the Commission, Zhao Chenxin.
IMAGE: Levan Davitashvili Signed Memorandum of Understanding between Governments of Georgia and China on Joint Promotion of Middle Corridor (Source: Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia).
The emphasis was placed on initiatives including the modernization of the railway system, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and the Anaklia Deep Seaport project. It was highlighted that enhancing transport and logistics infrastructure constitutes a key priority for the Georgian government.
The agreement aims to boost collaboration between Georgia and China to enhance the Middle Corridor’s efficiency by attracting more cargo, streamlining routes, upgrading infrastructure, and improving transport services.
According to a very thorough study conducted by the Asian Development Bank Institute, and authored by Tristan Kenderdine and Péter Bucsky, as far as China is concerned, “The Belt and Road is already a domestic and international hyperpolicy that lays out Eurasian hyperconnectivity as an institutionalized economic good. In this context, the connection of the PRC and Russia’s pan-Eurasian geoeconomic policies is referred to as the ‘Grand (Greater) Eurasian Partnership’ on the Russian side and as the ‘One Belt, One Union’ on the PRC side (Fang, 2020).”
The concept of the Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) has become increasingly significant within Russian foreign policy, something the US is watching with great interest. It is characterized as a foundational element, linking the Eurasian Economic Union with the Belt and Road Initiative, with its key seaport for the Middle Corridor development located in Lianyungang in the far northern part of the Jiangsu province of China. This location serves as the official endpoint of the CAREC Central Asia connectivity corridor, a framework established by CAREC before the implementation of the PRC’s Belt and Road initiative. The central policy of the PRC identifies this port as a crucial strategic gateway to Central Asia, thereby providing the government of Kazakhstan, along with the partner economies of the Middle Corridor, including Georgia and Azerbaijan, with access to the Pacific Ocean through this port. This partnership is further extended to encompass various regional powers from East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, as well as non-Western multilateral organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
In this evolving world order and the growing interest for the BRICS+, we must appreciate how this represents a great challenge for the United States which still finds comfort in Nicholas Spykman‘s “Rimland theory”, elaborated by this professor of international relations at Yale University, who wrote two books that explored the fundamental global geopolitical factors underlying US national security, and foresaw a struggle between the US and China for control of what he called the Asian Rimland. Nicholas Spykman (1893-1943), a man who never believed in lasting peace on a global scale, is still today considered one of the fathers of geopolitics in the United States, and is regarded as the inspiration for later thought leaders like Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor of the United States, Zbigniew Brzezinski.
The future trajectory of the GEP and the viability of its concept within a region marked by contention is central to the broader vision of Russia for the South Caucasus and Eurasia, however, external pressures are intensifying at an alarming pace on Tbilisi and Baku, and it is not too hard to predict that the US and the EU will keep the pressure on in 2025. Western powers are relentlessly pressing Armenia to leave the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to gain a military foothold in the country. Nikol Pashinian, the Prime Minister of Armenia, continues to exercise caution in his approach, refraining from officially withdrawing from the CSTO alliance. Considering NATO’s extensive history of mediation across various regions of the World, it is evident that the alliance’s deepening involvement in the Transcaucasus is unlikely to foster stability in that area.
Azerbaijan has emerged as a significant ally for Russia in recent years, particularly in the realms of energy exports and maintaining a transport corridor to Iran and the ports of the Persian Gulf. Regardless of personal opinions about Azerbaijan, one cannot overlook Baku’s adept diplomatic manoeuvres, which facilitated the premature withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the long-contested Nagorno-Karabakh region along the Armenian border, all while seemingly preserving favourable relations with Moscow. On the other hand, we can appreciate, how, despite its reluctance to leave the contested borders, the Kremlin was not prepared to jeopardize its relationship with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute — a move which was quickly instrumented by the US that won’t stop pushing the Russia international isolation” narrative.
With all that in mind, it is also important to consider the absolute significance of the recent emergence of Iran as a regional military and political power, a development that has placed both Washington and Tel Aviv on alert, and the fact that Azerbaijan shares a border with Iran will further bring this new geopolitical epicenter into intense focus. This reality is not lost on Moscow either, and this may also explain the imperative behind the recent 20-year cooperation agreement signed between Iran and Russia. The mutual security pact will enhance military cooperation, and prevent any other country from using either’s territory to be used for any action that would threaten the safety of the other, nor aid any third party in attacking either nation.
Perhaps this move towards security guarantees and stability will act as wind in the sails of both Georgia and Azerbaijan. During his meeting and press conference with Georgia Dream’s Irakli Kobakhidze, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev emphasised on both leaders discussions about the Middle Corridor Project, stating, “Azerbaijan and Georgia will be the connection, the bridge that will be established between Europe and Asia,” describing both nations as “indispensable partners.”
Both leaders are very much aware of the political implications that lie beneath the Middle Corridor and the deepening of their economic partnership remains a priority for them.
IMAGE: President Ilham Aliyev and PM Irakli Kobakhidze during press statements in Baku, Azerbaijan, January 17, 2025 (Source: Trend AZ)
The US and the EU’s desperate attempt to undermine Azerbaidjan and Russia’s relationship – by weaponizing the absence of Russia from the negotiations between Yerevan and Baku, suggests that more extra-regional interference in the South Caucasus region is to be expected. On January 14, 2025, a strategic partnership agreement was signed by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, representing a pivotal development in the relationship between Yerevan and Washington which must have prompted Azerbaijan to reassess the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan does not have a strategic partnership with the US as Armenia now does.
The reality is also catching up with the Western media which keeps on serving us with unsophisticated propaganda and old deceiving tricks, to hide the $4 billion mark for Russia-Azerbaijan trading turnover in 2024, despite NATO’s continued effort to imprison Putin in a war of attrition in Ukraine whilst the US never handing sanctions is the gift that keeps on giving.
Conclusion
The geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus are undergoing significant changes. Azerbaijan and Georgia, previously firmly oriented towards Western alliances, are now exhibiting a tendency to realign with Russia. Conversely, Armenia, which has maintained a close relationship with the Kremlin since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, appears to be moving closer to Western powers.
The Middle Corridor is poised to serve as a significant resource for regional trade; however, it seems likely to maintain a competitive disadvantage relative to the Northern Route via Russia, which route is expected to provide delivery times that are three times faster and at a reduced cost, particularly when stability is restored to the geopolitical landscape.
Russia’s hat trick win in Eurasia is palpable.
READ MORE EURASIA NEWS AT: 21st Century Wire Eurasia Files
VISIT OUR TELEGRAM CHANNEL
SUPPORT OUR INDEPENDENT MEDIA PLATFORM – BECOME A MEMBER @21WIRE.TV