Fabio Massimo Parenti
21st Century Wire
“Finally,” even in part of the so-called “West,” there is recognition that the world has changed in its interstate balances. This recognition, this newfound awareness, is particularly significant as it emerges from the new U.S. presidency—namely, the government of the most important nation-pole of the West, which has been its undisputed leader for the past 80 years.
We say “finally” because many observers and scholars (as prophetic as they were ignored) had already suggested the need to adapt to these changes—calling for greater cooperation with state-civilization poles such as China, Russia, India, and Iran, and more engagement with new non-Western international institutional platforms like BRICS+, SCO, EAEU, and BRI; while at the same time rejecting the logic of opposing blocs.
The United States, like the rest of its traditional allies, is thus forced to adapt to the new world simply because it is no longer able to manipulate it at will. Therefore, Trump’s entire term—unless he suffers an internal coup—will help shed even more light on the consolidation of the multipolar world. He will do so with all the contradictions and unpredictability we have come to expect from him. But the most important takeaway is the undeniable need to adapt to the rest of the world without insisting on subjugating it.
Opening the doors to a new negotiation with the Russian Federation, as Trump and his entourage are doing, marks Russia’s victory over the U.S. and NATO—the true instigators and promoters of the war in Ukraine.
In my view, even if many of the MAGA ambitions of the new White House occupant will remain unfulfilled, his policies are interesting insofar as they stem from the recognition of American decline—a decline highlighted by the emergence of a new international order and, more specifically, by the strategic mistakes that resulted from previous resistance to adaptation in an attempt to restore a lost hegemony.
Towards a Post-Western Multipolar Order
For a long time, the failure to acknowledge these changes was a characteristic unique to the West. In contrast, the expansion of non-Western international projects reflected growing support and material ties between the rest of the world and extra-Western spaces and dynamics. The war in Ukraine, for instance, has demonstrated how the West—defeated—failed to isolate Russia and instead found itself more isolated from the rest of the world. This is because the new international order had already emerged, yet we pretended not to see it, desperately clinging to the privileges enjoyed by those who rule—or rather, those who once ruled.
Uncertainty: Trump and Vance policies still unsettled.
These profound changes, which we might call the “tectonics of geopolitics,” should have long ago led the West to abandon its hegemonic, imperialist, and supremacist logic—first rooted in Eurocentric universalism and later in Anglo-Saxon messianism—that inspired the West’s global domination projects. This era is over, along with the decline of “neoliberal globalization.”
A pressing question arises: Will the U.S. and Europe have to start imitating China—at least in terms of economic development strategies based on long-term political planning, technological autonomy, and peaceful multipolarity?
China and the U.S. are becoming comparable in terms of global economic weight, accounting for 20% and 30% of global GDP, respectively—the world’s top exporter and importer. [It is worth noting that GDP calculated using purchasing power parity (PPP) and production-based methods rather than expenditure-based methods strongly favors China.] In fact, as previously noted in other writings, China has, for many years, surpassed the U.S. in industrial production, international trade, and technological development, as reflected in international statistics. Not to mention the green technology sector, where China is the undisputed global leader.
It is precisely within these dynamics that Trump’s words—spoken on Inauguration Day about the labor market, trade, and wars—take on significance.
Not only will it be difficult to recover lost ground, but it will be almost impossible unless a more “Keynesian” vision of the relationship between states and markets is restored—one that prioritizes social cohesion and justice at the center of Western political action. Otherwise, fragmentation, socioeconomic inequality, and the private-interest conflicts embedded in our parliaments leave little hope for anything significant or desirable.
More precisely, globally renowned scholars such as G. Arrighi, M. Jacques, K. Mahbubani, and J. Sachs foresaw at least 20 years ago the radical transformation of the world-system. This system has shifted from a more or less liberal, unipolar order (or a restricted multipolarity limited to a small portion of the world) to a new, expanded multipolar order structured around multiple state-poles across different continents.
Moreover, with the West’s open support for and complicity in Israel’s ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people, the already faltering international legitimacy of the West has now definitively collapsed.
Internal Limits of the West
The only way to serve the interests of an entire nation and ensure lasting forms of peaceful coexistence is through dialogue, cooperation, and mutual respect. We have written extensively about this in reference to the unique characteristics of Chinese diplomacy. This will be the real challenge for those in the new Trump administration, who may believe they can resolve deep-rooted historical problems too quickly—relying solely on business strategies and an approach that, in part, remains outdated, as it still requires finding enemies among competitors rather than fostering greater cooperation among equals.
Arrogance, presumption, and a sense of superiority continue to encrust the corridors of power in the so-called West. And while recognizing that the world is changing is necessary, it will not be sufficient, because such recognition alone is unlikely to generate the new cultural and political paradigms necessary for intelligent adaptation. We shall see, but I deeply doubt that the imperialist “DNA” of the West, along with its messianic vision, can be “revised” in the short term. Consequently, the transformation of the world system will continue to unfold through extremely contradictory processes.
A New Transatlantic Fracture
The first month of Trump’s second term is already revealing—unsurprisingly, except for the so-called European leaders—the growing fracture between the United States and the European Union. This divide will play out both in security and defense matters and in economic and trade policies. We had already discussed this during Trump’s first term, but this time, the neo-mercantilist and somewhat isolationist approach of the new administration is even more pronounced.
Although Trump’s political agenda primarily serves the country’s elites, his initial foreign policy actions appear swift and impactful on global balances. They seem genuinely aimed at reindustrializing the country and expanding domestic job opportunities. The idea—whose effectiveness remains to be seen—of imposing tariffs on all fronts while simultaneously cutting taxes for businesses and workers and reducing energy costs is conceived within this framework.
In this light, the pursuit of military disengagement in Europe makes sense—not only to save resources and benefit from Ukrainian raw material deposits but also to concentrate efforts in the Indo-Pacific and foster a closer relationship with Russia in a vain attempt to destabilize the Sino-Russian alliance. Meanwhile, the EU appears divided, diplomatically weak, and incapable of constructing real strategic autonomy—making its political nonexistence evident to all.
EU Decline and US Revisionism
The EU has almost always followed the U.S. geopolitical agenda, even sacrificing its own interests to support the proxy war between the U.S. and Russia in Ukraine. Over the past thirty years, it has gradually abandoned its political and strategic autonomy in favor of unwavering support for the U.S. However, interests are now diverging more sharply—and the U.S. reminds us of this daily. Consider, for instance, the destruction of one of Europe’s most critical infrastructures, Nord Stream 2, at the hands of our “friends” across the Atlantic.
There is now an awakening in both the U.S. and Europe from the parasitic slumber of those who have dominated the world for centuries but are no longer able to impose their will on the rest of the world. However, this awakening is unfolding in chaotic contexts, hitting Europe particularly hard. As the contemporary periphery of the American empire, Europe will be forced to bear the costs of the West’s decline.
Just yesterday, Russia, China, Iran, and other regional powers were labeled as “revisionist powers” of the existing world order—the so-called “liberal rules-based order.” Today, however, it is the U.S. itself that is becoming a “revisionist power,” especially under Trump’s leadership, as he seeks to reassert America’s centrality in the new post-Western multipolar order—perhaps without attempting to restore its lost hegemony.
I do not believe that we—especially in Europe—will be able to seize the opportunities presented by the shock and upheaval we are experiencing. Yet, there are many to be found.
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