Lebanon isn’t a side quest, it’s the pressure point that can keep a US Iran war simmering for years. Also, we examine why the framing around Hezbollah is so politically useful in Tel Aviv and Washington, and why the West’s proscription of this organization can make diplomacy feel “impossible” by design. We break down Hezbollah’s origins in the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon, the reality of Hezbollah as both a political party and an armed force, and the uncomfortable question most headlines skip: why can’t the Lebanese Armed Forces defend their own airspace? From there, we zoom out to Israel’s longer term strategic interests in the south, including territory, resources, and water, and we talk about how post October 7th rules have shifted in ways that change the calculus for civilians and states alike. The conversation also draws parallels to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units, the war on terror’s elastic definitions, and how labels like “Iran backed” can erase local agency while lowering the threshold for violence. Finally, we tackle the big strategic picture: Iran’s rising leverage, America’s declining credibility, and what an “interregnum” between world orders looks like when no one trusts the old rules anymore. All this and more.
Host Jim Webb sits down with journalist and geopolitical analyst Patrick Henningsen to help solve the puzzle of the American quagmire in the Middle East. Watch:
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