Andrew Korybko writes at Substack…
Russia is winning the war of attrition against Ukraine and NATO and Western countries like Germany and Poland are maxing out their military support. With Russia producing more ammunition at a fraction of the cost and the growing pressures on the West to reconsider their approach, the conflict may soon reach a turning point.
Korbyko’s report informs the reader that, according to internal documents from the Defense Ministry, cited by Bild, Germany has exhausted its military aid to Ukraine and will no longer provide heavy equipment to their ally. The news comes just a few weeks after Poland’s Defense Minister issued a similar statement. The recent limitations could suggest that the West may reassess their approach and consider the possibility of putting an end to the conflict soon.
Russia, meanwhile, has a logistical advantage in the “war of attrition”, with reports by Sky News indicating that Russia is outpacing NATO and producing around three times as many shells as NATO at just a fraction of the cost.
Korbyko further mentions that a major hurdle is that Russia is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire as long as Ukraine holds Kursk and Donbass, areas which Kiev seem unwilling to cede. The situation increases the risk of Ukraine’s front lines collapsing due to Russian strategies and attrition. If such a scenario occurs, he claims Russia might look into expanding further into Zapopzhye and Dnipropetrovsk without formal claims to advance the line of contact or compel Ukraine into making concessions.
As Western military support reaches its limit, the conflict could either escalate dangerously—with NATO deploying troops, a nuclear threat, or an attack on Belarus—or head toward a diplomatic resolution. Russia may be offered a more favorable ceasefire, or the West might pressure Ukraine to make territorial concessions to end the war.
Continue this analysis at Substack
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