Norway with a GNP-per-capita score not so far from that of Qatar and no unemployment, had brewed its own post-liberal neo-fascist poster child, Anders Breivik- AKA Andrew Berwick, a latter day Knight Templar defending the Holy City of Jerusalem, free market economics and the wars in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and Pakistan… had struck – real hard.
MOVING ON WITH OUR WAR ECONOMY
This raises a timely question, and certainly the kind which our mainstream media will not be discussing ad nauseum for the next week or two: How are we going with the post-liberal or even post-modern and post-historical War Economy these days?
Obama’s most impressive acheivement to date, the 14,297 billion dollar debt ceiling, underlines a simple fact: printing more new money is now so urgent that going to war is far too slow. Besides, ever since the supershow of 9/11 and a public demolition event at a major New York tourist-and-finance venue, designer wars ‘over the horizon’, AKA the Middle East have been on a downturn, despite the collateral civilian dead.
Obama’s new debt ceiling party, called a Stimulus 2.0 bill by some, and unreal by almost anybody else is far larger than the total combined cost of World War 1 and World War 2 to the USA. It is around 5 times bigger than the combined costs of the USA’s post-2001 designer wars estimated at a total cost of around 2,100 to 2,800 billion dollars.
Getting the debt ceiling sealed and delivered could therefore take several more 24-hour chat shows inside the White House and on prime time, but nice editorialists say the event is likely only a 10-day wonder. Like the Norway massacre, this boggles the mind.
Before we get around to US Treasuries selling for pennies on the dollar, things need to move. The problem is “it never happened before”, just like the Greek-PIIGS and Japanese meltdowns.
All we have on display in the fire sale shop window is the Asian Locomotive growth economy to keep us happy. Hailed as saving us all, by CNN Business and Bloomberg experts, and likely by the UK “Sun” this miracle loco is easy to understand because it is a literal carbon copy – a high carbon copy – of the post war economic growth miracle which happened in the Old Rich/New Poor societies until they were hit by the 1970′s oil shocks.
China and India are shovelling coal into their locomotive right now: a combined total of around 2.7 billion tons of coal a year. Their coal burning grows every year. This is guaranteed but when or if it doesnt, the Asian growth miracle terminates, and then mutates in ways we will find out quite soon.
Economists peddling the post war growth economy, with its cute designer wars as a side dish could ask the average iPhone enabled postindustrial consumer living the Internet revolution if they knew their industrial iPhones and PCs were made from coal and run on coal, when they aren’t made from oil and run on electricity made from much more coal and gas – than nuclear power or homeopathic doses of Green Energy, to amuse and fool the crowd ? At times like today, there is only space for the growth mantra: so simple that even brain-dead TV advertising gets it word perfect. It says: Keep The Party Going, and the no surprise is that nobody wants to know.
The war economy, like its downsized civilian counterpart runs on coal and heavy industry. Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri, Nobel prize winners for alerting consumers in the Old Rich/New Poor societies to the dangers of CO2 could try the question of what would happen to remaining strands of the growth economy, if China and India suddenly gave up coal burning, and replaced the coal with oil and gas “to save the planet”. Gasoline would be rationed in every single Old Rich/New Poor country, not just using high prices but those cute old-fashioned, postwar ration books the Baby Boomers parents used.
CANARY IN THE GOLD MINE
The new and giant middle class populations of China and India, by early 2011 were buying physical gold bullion in volume due to their concern about inflation and the declining value of their respective paper currencies. Gold demand by China was expected to rise about 20 percent to near 700 tons in 2011; Indian private gold buying was estimated at more than 200 tons in the first 3 months of 2011. Combined, this demand is running at far above one-half of likely world total gold production, of around 2500 to 2700 tons for the year.
So why shouldn’t China and India take one-half, or more than that, of world oil output ? Like anybody can tell you, this is physically impossible. Period and full stop. To be sure, this is the hidden basic agenda of the late-stage growth economy. Any postindustrial consumer-voter in the Old Rich/Hyper Debt countries knows why there are oil wars over the horizon. They know they need 10, 15 or 20 barrels of oil a year to be postindustrial, produce nothing, and consume every possible industrial gimmick, from fast food to Facebook. Just doing nothing takes oil.
But fighting heroic wars over the horizon, and War on Terror at home takes so much oil we don’t even want to guess although the manufacturers of land battle tanks or helicopters can tell us how many barrels-per-hour their not-so-postindustrial goodies consume.
Today, even a downsized and losing war over the horizon needs borrowing to buy the oil it burns, but the mix of dreamtime hope and real world debt is toxic. Not being able to win those cute little wars over the horizon is a downer for consumer morale, and like the post-Vietnam sequence for the USA, through 1975-79 we can be certain the former growth society, deprived of its raison d’etre, will shift into Black Swan domains where everything is possible and surprise is sure. Even designer wars can be admitted as unwinnable. That ‘barbarous relic’ of Keynes, gold instead of paper money, is a nice new idea. Buying food and gasoline now needs credit cards and debt: with creative financing this could be levered and structured – like we said, all is possible.
China and India will go on buying and importing oil until the bitter end. Today’s four leading global oil importers, by rank are: USA, China, Japan, India. Like gold, oil prices can and will show “surprising and alarming” strength right up to the meltdown wire. Only recession pushing say 20 percent of the USA’s population to the bread line soup kitchen, like in Spain already, and in other PIIGS economies very soon, will dent the high structural oil demand of the debt-wracked post-wealth post-growth economy.
THE NEOLIBERAL ALTERNATE
Like we know, this does not exist. Even its golden oldie of designer wars over the horizon has run out of collateral dead and the debt needed to pay for it. The new solution is emerging right now, with Norway in the lead. Our downsized neo-colonial wars over the horizon and being repatriated back home, downsized again, and can use low cost tech like fertilizer bombs and cheap plastic wrapped copies of 5.56 mil infantry rifles with a Chinese made scope for trimming.
The very founding Mother and Father of the doctrine, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher and US president Ronnie Reagan spelled it all out a long time ago – your neighbor is your enemy: profit from their downfall. The new war economy will feature iron rations and freeze-dried chow for bunker living, and those cute anti-radiation gas masks we are getting to see and admire every day. When the Knights of the Temple attack those dirty bomb nuclear reactor targets littered around the oil-saving squeaky-clean New Economy, their body count can become as impressive as Anders Breivik wanted – lets say a few million here and there. To be sure, the historical antecedents are cast in stone.
Mind you, both Mussolini and Hitler ran a war-time economy inside their corporate fascist states- all too familiar to the structures of leading ‘democratic’ western super states.
Nice people have a ”No Alternative” route today: so it’s pedal to the metal !COPYRIGHT ANDREW MCKILLOP 2011