President Trump has clearly expressed his willingness to engage in negotiations with Iran, a sentiment that is shared by most Americans. To understand precisely what the American public thinks about U.S. policy decisions concerning Iran, the University of Maryland conducted a Critical Issues Poll, which sought to answer this question. Their survey, which was conducted in collaboration with SSRS on its Opinion Panel Omnibus platform, took place from May 2 to May 5, 2025, and included 1,008 participants. Two key findings emerged from their survey.
First, the data indicate that a substantial majority of respondents (69%) expressed a preference for a negotiated agreement aimed at restricting Iran’s nuclear program to peaceful purposes, accompanied by rigorous oversight. In contrast, only 14% favored military intervention to eliminate Israel’s nuclear capabilities, while 18% remained uncertain. A significant majority of Democrats, 78%, endorsed the negotiated agreement approach, alongside 64% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Conversely, 24% of Republicans favored military intervention aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, compared to 13% of independents and 5% of Democrats.
IMAGE: Survey Result, Figure 1 (Source: Brookings)
Second, the survey examined the American public’s views on nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, focusing on Israel, a state known to have an advanced nuclear weapons program, and Iran, thought to be close to developing them, even though the U.S. intelligence community assessed that Iran had not resumed work on its weaponization research. Respondents chose from four scenarios to identify which they saw as least threatening to regional stability: only Israel with nuclear weapons, only Iran with nuclear weapons, neither nation with nuclear weapons, or both nations with nuclear weapons. 69% of respondents expressed a preference for neither nation to hold nuclear weapons. In contrast, 10% favored Israel as the sole possessor of nuclear weapons, 6% supported both countries having them, and a mere 1% indicated a preference for Iran to be the only nation with nuclear weapons. It is indisputable that the objective of preventing conflict with Iran, while simultaneously restricting its nuclear capabilities and curbing its influence in the Middle East, aligns more closely with the perspectives of Gulf Arab states than those of the Israeli government.
IMAGE: Survey Result, Figure 2 (Source: Brookings)
The survey results suggest that if the president negotiates a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear capabilities for peaceful use, with strict oversight, he will likely gain strong support from Americans. A significant majority of both Democrats and Republicans favour a negotiated settlement, while only 14% support military action to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. However, the direction of Trump’s administration and its relations with Iran still remain ambiguous. The question is, why? Responsible Statecraft has the story…
Ben Armbruster reports for the Responsible Statecraft...
MAGA influencers want an Iran deal, and for hawks to shut up
Trump is unlikely to pay any political price if he disregards the old guard’s unrealistic demands
Neocons and their allies in Washington, Israel, and beyond are making unrealistic demands about the outcome of U.S. talks with Iran on limiting its nuclear program. But President Trump has absolutely no reason to listen to them and should not take them seriously.
The anti-Iran deal campaign kicked into overdrive last week when Republicans on Capitol Hill sent a letter to the White House calling on Trump to refuse any agreement that doesn’t include the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program.
“Every Republican senator except Rand Paul signed a letter to President Trump urging the administration to push for an end to Iran’s enrichment capacity,” Andrew Day, senior editor of the American Conservative, told RS. “They know that this demand is unacceptable to the Iranian regime and are clearly hoping to sabotage Trump’s diplomatic efforts.”
Center for International Policy senior non-resident fellow Sina Toossi called the letter’s demand “a poison pill.”
“Demanding zero enrichment, permanent restrictions, and total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — after the U.S. already broke the 2015 deal — is not a negotiating position,” he told RS. Meanwhile, others deal opponents say that Iran can be allowed to keep its program for civilian energy production purposes, with the caveat that it cannot enrich its own uranium.
The good news for Trump, though — and those who see an opportunity to box in Iran’s nuclear program and avoid war — is that this anti-Iran deal coalition has no constituency outside Washington and Israel, and Trump will pay very little to no political price if he just ignores them.
Take for instance, a recent poll conducted by the SSRS Opinion Panel Omnibus in conjunction with the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll program. That survey found that a large majority of Americans — 69% — favor “a negotiated agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program to peaceful ends, with stringent monitoring” as opposed to military action. But perhaps more importantly for Trump’s political fortunes, 64% of Republicans surveyed — i.e. his base — agreed.
Opponents of diplomacy with Iran try to obfuscate this reality and muddy the waters. For example, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies CEO Mark Dubowitz, who’s been pushing for regime change in Iran for nearly two decades, promoted a poll last week finding that “76% of Americans say Iran’s nuclear-weapons facilities should be destroyed.”
Of course, there is one problem: Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons or a nuclear weapons program, and thus no nuclear weapons facilities, a fact that the U.S. intelligence community routinely concludes. But it’s not just the American people or the GOP base that support Trump making a deal with Iran. Some of the more high-profile figures in the MAGA-America First world back him, too.
“It’s called sanity,” Steve Bannon said last week, referring to the SSRS/UMaryland poll. Bannon, of course, served as a senior adviser to Trump during his first term and remains influential within his orbit and among his supporters.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who also has clout with Trump’s base, has been very vocal recently against going to war with Iran. “There is no wedge between the base and President Trump,” she said earlier this month. “The wedge is between Congress and the establishment Republicans that are undermining the president’s agenda.”
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