Patrick Henningsen
21st Century Wire
As far as political scenes go, this one was unprecedented. It’s also certain to alter the trajectory of the West’s disastrous proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. But to whose benefit?
On Friday, a war of words broke out during a meeting in the Oval Office between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. It happened during a meeting in which they were supposed to be inking a bilateral ‘minerals deal’, before laying down a path to peaceful settlement and end to the three year conflict in Ukraine.
The heated exchange also took place in full view of both the domestic U.S. and international press, as well as a visiting Ukrainian delegation. What began as a routine media opportunity, quickly descended into pandamonium, somewhat sparked by Vice President JD Vance who began challenging what appeared to be an intransigent Zelensky, and then Zelensky pushed back, at which point Trump moved in and proceeded to drop the proverbial hammer on Zelensky. It was ugly.
Towards the end, Trump would snapped at the Ukrainian president, saying, “You are gambling with world war three.”
It was the shot heard round the world. On one hand, it wasn’t good to see a U.S. President and VP scrap with a lower tier leader like Zelensky – but on the other hand, it was somewhat cathartic for many of the war-wary millions around the world – who could finally see a western leader say very loudly (and publicly) what many of us have felt and known for a very long time: that the Ukrainian regime is out of control and are putting the region, and the world, at risk of a wider war, if not a nuclear conflagration.
There were early signs that the air was already tense between the two delegations. When Zelensky first arrived at the West Wing entrance sporting his usual green outfit, Trump issued a devastating put-down whilst shaking his hand, announcing, “He is all dressed up today.” The ribbing continued inside, after Zelensky was asked by a reporter why he wasn’t wearing a suit, with Zelenskyy replying cynically, “I will wear a costume when this war is finished. Maybe something like yours.”
The conversation between the two Presidents had started off very cordial and productive. Although, from the very beginning of the 50 minute press event, Zelensky looked awkward, and visibly disheveled whenever Trump mentioned Putin and Russia, with Zelensky continually injecting comments about who evil Putin was. His insistence on over-egging the pudding did not go unnoticed by Trump and his team, and no doubt began to annoy them. Then things really went downhill.
It was like a scene out of The Apprentice, where Trump fires one of his feisty upstarts. Ironically, it was Zelensky who had sought the meeting in which he hoped to nail down an interim agreement. Not surprisingly, Zelensky left the White House hastily without signing a proposed deal, and left a state luncheon untouched after being prepared by the White House chefs downstairs.
Trump’s ‘minerals deal’ with Zelensky was only meant to be a stepping stone to a second ceasefire phase, and followed by a final negotiated settlement between the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. Should they fail to initiate this three-step process, and if the U.S. backs off of Ukraine, then it will be up to the Europeans to both subsidize and prosecute the West’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. If Zelensky somehow manages to cling to power, then he will be forced to do the bidding of not only European war hawks, but also the Ukrainian Nationalists and Nazi elements – all of whom appear desperate to carry on with the Western gravy train, and extending a losing war indefinitely. That will invariably mean another 100,000 or 200,000 more dead Ukrainian men on the frontline meat grinder. In other words: the status quo, albeit without U.S. muscle and support as a backstop. They need to understand that if Russia has been winning while a corruption-ridden Kiev is being backed by the U.S. – just imagine how bad it could get for them with potentially dwindling and ineffectual European support. This will also mean that Ukraine will lose even more men, resources, and territory, as well as risking a complete collapse of the Ukrainian economy and society, not to mention fracturing their national military in its current form.
JD Vance: frustrated with the Ukrainian president.
Another inconvenient result of this donnybrook in the Oval Office is that it really made Zelensky look very unhinged and incompetent as a world leader. By contrast, to an American and international audience, this will make Russian President Vladimir Putin look much more statesman-like and rational in comparison – like the stable leader of superpower and partner which the U.S. can do business with. Make no mistake: this was a massive PR victory for Moscow.
While this was an absolute disaster for Zelensky, it also presents some deeper problems for Trump too. Other nations, including Russia, are taking note. Trump’s attempt to renegotiate the terms of Biden’s financial support for Ukraine will be viewed by other countries as what Sergei Lavrov lamented as America’s chronic new condition of being perceived as “agreement incapable.” This makes diplomacy more difficult, if not impossible, going forward. In similar fashion, one year into his first term in May 2018, Trump pulled the rug out from under the JCPOA “Iran nuclear deal”, promptly canceling the international agreement under pressure from Netanyahu and the Israeli Lobby. Trump also pulled out of the crucial Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Arguably, by absconding from all of these agreements, America has made the world a more unstable place. From Moscow’s perspective, the prospect of “don’t trust, but verify”, means any binding agreement might only last as long as one term of any U.S. President.
If Trump and Zelensky return to the table and manage to hammer out the minerals deal, then it still has to pass the hurdle of receiving approval from the Ukrainian parliament. There is no guarantee such a deal will be approved by the Ukrainian legislature as many regard it as predatory and colonialistic in nature, and taking advantage of Ukraine by Washington laying a debt trap with Trump moving the goal posts previously established by President Biden which hadn’t put stringent collateral security measures in place for Kiev to ‘pay back’ three years of U.S. financial support.
Even if the deal is agreed on by the Ukrainians, the reality is that it will take years, if not a decade or more, before the U.S. and Ukraine can realistically develop the exploration and mining required to realise any significant profits from their joint venture. By that time, any ‘minerals agreement’ could easily be promptly terminated by a successive U.S. or Ukrainian government. The deal also means that in the short and midterm, Ukraine will likely continue to fight with Russia, and thus suffer more the same losses as they are now.
Another likely outcome of this week’s White House blow-up is that Washington now has real motivation to oust Zelensky – either by forcing him to resign or exit by other means, like a coup d’etat. If Trump does opt for Zelensky’s ouster (by hook or crook), then this might present an opportunity to cooperate with the British who are currently grooming their preferred choice for Zelensky’s replacement – the former Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, who just happens to be in London serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. Trump’s desire to replace Zelensky only stands to reason, because the Russians have already made it crystal clear to Washington that they see no point in signing any negotiated settlement with Zelensky, as they regard him as a president whose mandate expired last May 2024, which means no deal can be done with him anyway, at least not until after legitimate elections are held in Ukraine. But that process could take many months to organise, due to the fact that Zelensky has banned most opposition parties and all opposition media. By that time, events on the frontlines may have already overtaken many of today’s pressing political problems.
Zelensky’s White House meltdown also provides the perfect opportunity for the U.S., and the West, to shift much of blame for this failed proxy war on to Zelensky himself, and this wave of disenchantment will invariably open the door to more opposition against him at home in Ukraine. If that situation unravels, then morale in the military will deteriorate, and then it won’t be long before Kiev’s Little Green Man will have to fuel-up the private jet, grab his duffle bags full of cash as possible, and flee the country while he still can.
At home, Trump shouldn’t have to expend too much political capital in reframing this whole Ukraine debacle, as it’s clear that he’s inherited the disaster from his predecessor, who many regard as a senile old warmonger, so easy enough to lay the blame at the feet of Biden’s already tarnished legacy. However, if Trump does not execute this 180 degree maneuver correctly by balancing relations with both friend and foe, and keeping any irrational European states in check (like those obsessed with past imperial grandeur, namely Britain), then chaos could soon fill the power vacuum left by a retreating America – which would give rise to more problems and unnecessary instability in the international system.
It’s pretty clear from successive statements by Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that Washington now prefers a neutral Ukraine, and not a NATO member. This is one key provision which Putin is almost certain to secure. As far as the ‘new regions’ of Donbass, and Crimea, now firmly in the Russian Federation, these are now ‘formerly Ukraine’, and therefore nonnegotiable. That said, Washington, Europe, and the regime in Kiev, should be aware that the longer they carry on with this proxy war, the more territory Russia will take in order to secure its vital national security perimeter. And after Zelensky’s ill-advised strikes inside of mainland Russia (a series of attacks wholly supported by NATO), you can expect that Russia will now see it as absolutely imperative to expand that national security perimeter in order to guard their population against future attacks. These are all long-term objectives for the Russian Federation, and so Washington should expect Moscow to be very methodical, patient, and determined in pursuing them.
How the U.S. feels about that outcome depends largely on how it sees its future relations with Russia – as an enemy, or frenemy. If Trump, like the Biden Administration, EU and the British government, comes to view U.S,-Russian relations as a zero sum game, then more and complicated problems are coming over the horizon. However, if he sees a future of Kissingerian triangular diplomacy by working to entice Moscow away from China (as well as Iran), then the next 12 months in Ukraine could end up being a geopolitical formality, as part of the inevitable transition towards what Rubio himself agrees is a multipolar world.
Trump is right: Zelensky doesn’t hold any cards.
Meanwhile, Moscow holds all the cards.
Watch an extended clip of Friday’s historic dust-up in the Oval Office here:
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Author Patrick Henningsen is an American writer and global affairs analyst, editor and founder of 21st Century Wire and host of the SUNDAY WIRE weekly show broadcast globally on the Alternate Current Radio Network (ACR). His work has appeared in a number of international publications and broadcast TV channels, and has done on-the-ground reportage from conflict zones including Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. He also holds an MA in International Relations from University of Plymouth in the UK. See his archive at here.
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