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US Intel Assessment: ‘Israel Likely to Strike Iran in Coming Months’

According to a new US intelligence assessment, a preemptive attack by Israel would set back Iran’s nuclear program by “mere weeks or months”, but would also significantly escalate war tensions across the Middle East. 

Now a wanted war criminal by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems more desperate than ever to avoid the courts at home and abroad by rebooting perpetual war in the region – and revive his obsession with the Islamic Republic of Iran’s non existent nuclear weapons program. In doing doing so, he risks dragging a vulnerable new Trump Administration into another yet disastrous regional war.

For the past three decades, the crazed Israeli leader has been sounding the alarm about Iran’s nuclear program, and regularly threatens to attack the country, claiming that Tehran must face a “credible nuclear threat” from Israel – or the United States, if he is able to successfully drag Washington into the maelstrom.

That moment could be approaching soon…


IMAGE: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows phase two of his “Greater Israel Project” at the 78th United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York on September 22, 2023 

Washington Post reports…

Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months in a preemptive attack that would set back Tehran’s program by weeks or perhaps months but escalate tensions across the Middle East and renew the prospect of a wider regional conflagration, according to U.S. intelligence.

The warnings about a potential Israeli strike are included in multiple intelligence reports spanning the end of the Biden administration and the beginning of the Trump administration, none more comprehensive than an early January report produced by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency.

The report warned that Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in the first six months of 2025. Current and former U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence told The Washington Post that the finding derives from an analysis of Israel’s planning following its bombing of Iran in late October, which degraded its air defenses and left Tehran exposed to a follow-on assault. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly classified intelligence.

The Israeli government, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council, Brian Hughes, said President Donald Trump “has made it clear: He will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon.”

“While he prefers negotiating a resolution to American’s long-standing issues with the Iranian regime peacefully, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran isn’t willing to deal, and soon,” Hughes told The Post.

Hughes declined to comment on the underlying intelligence.

The prospect of a looming Israeli strike creates an early test for Trump, who campaigned on restoring peace and tempering the armed conflicts raging in the Middle East and Europe while also touting his staunch support for Israel.

The military intelligence report spelled out two potential strike options, each involving the United States providing support in the form of aerial refueling as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, said those familiar with the document. Such reliance on the United States in any strike on Iran — even one that yields only modest results — underscores Washington’s leverage over Israel’s path forward.

A distance attack, known as a standoff strike, would see Israeli aircraft firing air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs, outside of Iranian airspace, the intelligence report said. A more risky stand-in attack would see Israeli jets enter Iranian airspace, flying near the nuclear sites and dropping BLU-109s, a type of bunker buster. The Trump administration approved the sale of guidance kits for those bunker busters last week and made a notification to Congress that it had done so.

The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials. Any attack also would incentivize Iran to pursue weapons-grade enrichment of uranium, the officials said, a long-standing red line for the United States and Israel…

Continue this story at Washington Post

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