In January 2022, the United States declared its withdrawal of support for the EASTMED pipeline initiative, citing concerns regarding its economic viability and environmental impact, as well as the potential for diplomatic conflicts. Consequently, the project aimed at transporting natural gas from the reserves of Cyprus and Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe through Greece was effectively suspended.
During his presidency, Trump consistently demonstrated robust support for Israel, even when it necessitated a departure from longstanding American foreign policy. Following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022, the European Union’s liquefied natural gas market became predominantly influenced by the United States and Norway; however, the EastMed project has remained listed among the EU’s projects of common interest (PCI) and has not been officially discarded.
Is there a possibility for its revival under Trump’s leadership?
Yiannis Seitanidis reports for POLITIS...
EastMed Pipeline Puts Israel on the Table
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The idea of a virtual EastMed pipeline from Israel to Europe via the Cypriot EEZ is an alternative – and perhaps more realistic – approach to the original physical pipeline plan. EastMed remains on the EU’s list of projects of common interest (PCI) and has not been formally abandoned.
The plan for a pipeline to transport natural gas from the deposits of Cyprus and Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe via Greece seems to be coming out of the drawer again. The EastMed pipeline is a plan that has been removed from the energy options picture due to high costs and mainly due to the lack of confirmation of deposits capable of making the project viable. If there were large quantities of natural gas, the discussion would be different.
he technical approach (the technical part was a big challenge from the beginning) is quite different as a “virtual” pipeline is being considered, that is, a natural gas transportation system that would combine liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure with maritime transport. Instead of a physical pipeline crossing the Eastern Mediterranean, the natural gas from the fields would be transported to a floating liquefaction unit and from there loaded onto ships bound for Europe. Liquefaction could also take place at an onshore terminal in Cyprus. Discussions are at an early stage.
The EastMed plan in a new form is coming out of the drawer thanks to Israel, which prioritizes its energy security after the Hamas attack in October 2023. In the new security environment, Israel wants to be 100% sure of its choices. Cyprus and Greece, countries with which there is already a high level of cooperation, are the obvious safe choice both in terms of electricity and natural gas exports. Israel does not want any more surprises and seeks to limit any risk.
The intergovernmental agreement to promote regional energy stability, as well as innovative energy projects involving the Eastern Mediterranean and the entire European Union, signed in Athens by the Minister of Environment and Energy, Theodoros Skylakakis, and the Israeli Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Eli Cohen, falls within this framework.
“The agreement with Israel is an important milestone in the cooperation between the two countries on energy issues and holds much in store for the future (….) the creation of a ‘green’ electricity corridor from Israel to the EU, via Greece, will be a project of strategic importance for the Eastern Mediterranean region,” commented the Minister of Environment and Energy of Greece, Theodoros Skylakakis.
Mr. Cohen has also requested a meeting with his Cypriot counterpart, George Papanastasiou, which is expected to be arranged early in the new year. The whole discussion about a “virtual EastMed” will gain additional interest if the existence of significant quantities of natural gas in the “Electra” target is confirmed (related report on page 10).
IMAGE: The EastMed pipeline.
In the scenario of a virtual EastMed, the main source of natural gas would be the Leviathan and Tamar fields with an intermediate station in Cyprus. Greece is the most likely entry point to the European market and Egypt an alternative option for transporting the gas. The use of LNG allows for greater flexibility in exports and destinations. In terms of cost, it would probably be lower compared to the natural EastMed pipeline, which is estimated at 6-7 billion euros.
The idea of the “virtual” EastMed pipeline reflects the adaptability of the countries of the region to changing geopolitical and economic conditions. As discussions progress, we will likely see [sic] further developments in the field of energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the possible integration of renewable energy sources and energy storage technologies in the future.
One parameter to consider is that the European Union remains dependent on natural gas imports from Russia despite major efforts to change this in recent years. Therefore, every additional drop of LNG is crucial for the strategic pursuit of energy independence from Russia.
The natural conduit
It is worth noting that the EastMed natural gas pipeline project remains on the EU’s list of projects of common interest (PCI) and has not formally been abandoned.
It is officially considered that the EastMed Pipeline regional gas infrastructure between Cyprus, Israel and Greece will connect the Eastern Mediterranean with Europe and will enhance energy security and diversification of energy sources. The EastMed Pipeline will subsequently be able to transport gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region to Europe. In addition, it provides the opportunity to create synergies and cooperation between the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region.
Cyprus, Greece and Israel signed an intergovernmental agreement on the EastMed Pipeline, which all three countries ratified in 2020. The agreement defines various issues between the countries involved, establishes a joint working group between them to monitor and carry out the work required for the implementation of the EastMed Pipeline, and sets the legal basis for its further promotion.
The 20 bcm/y EastMed Pipeline PCI is currently in the licensing phase. Its total cost is approximately €6 billion. It is the only Cypriot PCI in the gas sector that can maintain this status until Cyprus is interconnected with the EU gas network, based on the derogation (Cyprus and Malta) to Regulation (EU) 2022/869 on Trans-European Energy Networks (TEN-E). The project is expected to be mature for the transport of hydrogen and other low-carbon gases, as well as for its conversion into a hydrogen pipeline by 2036 (where it will be connected to the future internal hydrogen transport network) or when market conditions allow. In this way, it can contribute to the development of RES projects, necessary for the production of green hydrogen.
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