21st Century Wire says…
A new report has emerged from a think-tank suggesting that Brexit voters may not see the decline in immigration that they voted for.
‘Global Future’ estimates that total net immigration could fall by no more than 15% annually, after Brexit. Future free trade deals with non-EU countries suggests even this reduction could be wiped out altogether.
More on this report from The Guardian…
Theresa May’s attempt to reclaim control of UK borders after Brexit could reduce annual migration from the EU by just 50,000 – one-sixth of the current overall annual figure, according to new research.
The projection of a “vanishingly small reduction” is one of the first attempts to estimate how likely labour market demand, and the government’s planned new controls, could reduce the number of migrants coming to the UK. Reduction in immigrant numbers has been repeatedly cited in polls as the chief reason voters backed leaving the European Union.
The ‘Global Future’ think-tank report argues: “While ending freedom of movement is psychologically appealing to those who want a sense of control of our borders, the reality is such a move would create more the illusion of control. People looking for substantial reductions are likely to be disappointed with the eventual figure of 50,000 or less.”
Its director, Gurnek Bains, said: “The extent to which this impact is worth the myriad of economic and political problems that pulling out of free movement would create needs to be reflected upon. In addition, promising more than can be delivered on migration risks creating a firestorm in the future.”
Lets pause for moment to consider (a.) the report, and (b.) who is Gurnek Bains, director of this new think-tank, ‘Global Future’.
After searching through various online content, it is highly questionable of the existence of such a think-tank, let alone the absence of a hyperlink within The Guardian article to connect readers to this ‘report’. After contacting it’s ‘diplomatic editor’, Patrick Wintour, for comment on the authenticity of Global Future, no response was received.
If this is ‘new research’, just where can we read it?
Gurnek Bains, a social psychologist, who “has a strong interest in spread betting (on anything)”, has an extensive background working with consultant psychologists and “with senior leaders across a wide range of industries for almost 25 years and remains a trusted advisor to some of the most senior leaders in British and international business”. Co-founder of YSC, you can find more information about their clients here
The report points out 22% of EU migrants are in professional jobs, 22% in skilled occupations and 56% doing unskilled jobs. The UK has already said it will need to keep the professional route open, so the report assumes 50% of existing flow professional workers will still be required.
Ministers have also said they will respond to employer pressure to meet their demand for 80,000 seasonal workers, 90% of whom come from the EU…
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